Text från PDF
Ira Helfand, MD
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Physicians for Social Responsibility
NUCLEAR FAMINE:
A BILLION PEOPLE
AT RISK
Global Impacts of Limited Nuclear War on Agriculture,
Food Supplies, and Human Nutrition
Credits and Acknowledgements
The publication of this briefing paper was made possible
thanks to the generous financial support of the Swiss Federal
Department of Foreign Affairs.
1
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
ver the last several years, a number of
studies have shown that a limited, regional
nuclear war between India and Pakistan would
cause significant climate disruption worldwide.
Two studies published this year examine the
impact on agricultural output that would result
from this climate disruption.
In the US, corn production would decline by an
average of 10% for an entire decade, with the
most severe decline, about 20% in year 5. There
would be a similar decline in soybean production,
with, again, the most severe loss, about 20%, in
year 5.
A second study found a significant decline in
Chinese middle season rice production. During
the first 4 years, rice production would decline by
an average of 21%; over the next 6 years the
decline would average 10%.
The decline in available food would be exacer-
bated by increases in food prices which would
make food inaccessible to hundreds of millions of
the world’s poorest. Even if agricultural markets
continued to function normally, 215 million people
would be added to the rolls of the malnourished
over the course of a decade.
O
However, markets would not function normally.
Significant, sustained agricultural shortfalls over
an extended period would almost certainly lead
to panic and hoarding on an international scale
as food exporting nations suspended exports in
order to assure adequate food supplies for their
own populations. This turmoil in the agricultural
markets would further reduce accessible food.
The 925 million people in the world who are
chronically malnourished have a baseline con-
sumption of 1,750 calories or less per day. Even
a 10% decline in their food consumption would
put this entire group at risk. In addition, the antic-
ipated suspension of exports from grain growing
countries would threaten the food supplies of sev-
eral hundred million additional people who have
adequate nutrition today, but who live in countries
that are highly dependent on food imports.
The number of people threatened by nuclear-war
induced famine would be well over one billion.
These studies demonstrate the need for addition-
al research and underscore the urgent need to
move with all possible speed to the negotiation of
a nuclear weapons convention that will eliminate
the danger of nuclear war.
Executive
Summary
2
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
n the 1980s, a number of scientific studies
demonstrated that a large scale nuclear war
between the United States and the Soviet Union
would cause “Nuclear Winter”, a profound world-
wide climate disruption with significant decreases
in precipitation and average surface temperature.
A US National Academy of Sciences study on the
medical consequences of nuclear war concluded
that, in the aftermath of such a war, “the primary
mechanisms for human fatalities would likely not
be from blast effects, not from thermal radiation
burns, and not from ionizing radiation, but, rather,
from mass starvation.”
1
While the direct mortali-
ty attributed to a “large-scale nuclear war” was
estimated at several hundred million people, the
subsequent food and health crisis was expected
to result in “the loss of one to four billion lives.”
In 2007, a study by Robock et al demonstrated
that even a very “limited” regional nuclear war,
involving only 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs, or
less than 0.5% of the world’s nuclear arsenal,
would also produce global climate disruption,
although the impact on temperature and precipi-
tation would be less profound.
2
At that time,
there were no data on the effect that the predict-
ed climate disruption would have on agricultural
production. The historical experience following
cooling events caused by volcanic eruptions,
most notably the Tambora eruption in 1815, sug-
gested that there might be a very significant
impact on food production and human nutrition.
A 2007 report by the International Physicians for
the Prevention of Nuclear War and its US affili-
ate, Physicians for Social Responsibility, sug-
gested that up to one billion people might starve
if a limited nuclear war led to even a 10% decline
in their food consumption.
3
This report is an initial attempt to quantify the
impact of a limited nuclear war on agricultural pro-
duction and the subsequent effects on global food
prices and food supply, and on human nutrition.
I
Harwell, M., and C. Harwell. 1986. Nuclear Famine: The Indirect Effects of Nuclear War. In, Solomon, F. and R. Marston (Eds.). The Medical
Implications of Nuclear War. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, pp. 117-135.
1
Robock, A., L. Oman, G. Stenchikov, O. Toon, C. Bardeen and R. Turco, 2007, Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts. Atm. Chem.
Phys., 7: 2003-12.
2
Helfand, I. 2007. An Assessment of the Extent of Projected Global Famine Resulting from Limited, Regional Nuclear War. Paper presented to the
Royal Society of Medicine, London, UK, October 2007.
3
Background
UN PHOTO / ALBERT GONZALEZ FARRAN
3
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
2007 study by Toon et al
4
considered the
consequences of a possible nuclear war
between India and Pakistan and showed that
such a conflict would loft up to 6.6 Tg (6.6 tera-
grams or 6.6 million metric tons) of black car-
bon aerosol particles into the upper tropo-
sphere. Robock et al then calculated the effect
that this injection of soot would have on global
climate assuming a war in South Asia occurring
in mid May.
Their study used a state of the art general circu-
lation climate model, ModelE from the NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and
employed a conservative figure of only 5 Tg of
black carbon particles. They found that, “A
global average surface cooling of -1.25°C per-
sists for years, and after a decade the cooling is
still -0.50°C. The temperature changes are
largest over land. A cooling of several degrees
occurs over large areas of North America and
Eurasia, including most of the grain-growing
regions.” In addition the study found significant
declines in global precipitation with marked
decreases in rainfall in the most important tem-
perate grain growing regions of North America
and Eurasia, and a large reduction in the Asian
summer monsoon.
5
A
Toon, Owen B., Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2007: Atmospheric effects and societal
consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism. Atm. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.
4
Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Owen B. Toon, Charles Bardeen, and Richard P. Turco, 2007: Climatic consequences of region-
al nuclear conflicts. Atm. Chem. Phys., 7, 2003-2012.
5
Climate disruption
from a “limited”
regional nuclear war
UN PHOTO / ESKINDER DEBEBE
4
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
Ozdogan, Mutlu, Alan Robock, and Christopher Kucharik, 2012: Impacts of Nuclear Conflict in South Asia on Crop Production in the Midwestern
United States. Submitted to Climatic Change.
6
wo studies conducted in 2011 examined
how these climate alterations would affect
agricultural output.
Ozdogan et al
6
examined the impact on corn and
soybean production in the US Corn Belt where
more than 70% of US grain is produced.
Localized climate data were generated for four
separate sites in the Corn Belt, one each in
Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri (Figure 1).
T
The study used a comprehensive terrestrial
ecosystem model, the Agro-Integrated Biosphere
Simulator (Agro-IBIS), to calculate the change in
predicted yield for corn and soybeans at each of
these sites for the 10 years following a limited
nuclear war in South Asia. The calculated
change in crop yield was based on the decline in
precipitation, solar radiation, growing season
length, and average monthly temperature pre-
dicted in Robock’s study.
The calculations in this initial study are probably
conservative, as the study did not consider two
other environmental factors which would be
expected to produce a further significant decline
in yield. It did not factor in the increase in UV
light secondary to ozone depletion, and, perhaps
more importantly, it did not consider daily temper-
ature extremes which may lead to complete crop
failure. The observed weather following the
Tambora eruption suggests that these daily
extremes may be the largest determinant of total
crop losses. The average global deviation in
temperature in 1816 was only -0.7°C, but there
was significant shortening of the growing season.
In the northeastern United States and eastern
Canada, which were particularly hard hit, temper-
Figure 1.Localized climate data were generated for four sites in the US Corn Belt. From left to right, Iowa,
Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. [Figure 1 from Ozdogan et al. ]
6
The impact
on agricultural
production
UN PHOTO / MARTINE PERRET
Row crops
Cropland Natural Mosaic
Deciduous Forest
Boreal Forest
Grassland
Coniferous Forest
Shrublands
Hay Pasture
Urban Built-Up Land
Grassland Forest Mosaic
5
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
atures were actually above average during the
early part of the year, and even during the sum-
mer months there were a number of periods with
average or above average temperatures. But
four severe cold waves, June 6-11, July 9-11, and
August 21 and August 30, brought killing frosts
as far south as the Mid Atlantic States, and in
New England and Quebec there was even signif-
icant snow fall in June.
7
These periods of frost
caused extensive damage to crops. A similar
pattern in Northern Europe caused crop losses in
the range of 75%
8
and the last multi-country
famine in European history.
In addition, the study did not consider several
other factors which might limit food production.
Modern agriculture is very dependent on gaso-
line to power tractors and irrigation pumps and to
transport produce to market, and on other petro-
leum products used in the manufacture of fertiliz-
er and pesticides. A major conflict in South Asia
would be very likely to affect petroleum supplies
and prices which would have an additional nega-
tive impact on agricultural output. Further, given
the intense demand for petroleum products,
some of the grain produced might be diverted to
ethanol production to try to offset the shortfall in
petroleum.
Despite this conservative bias, the study showed
very significant declines in both corn and soy-
bean production. Averaged over 10 years, corn
production would decline by 10% at all four sites
(Figure 2). But there would be a great deal of
Stommel H, Stommel E. The year without a summer. Scientific American, 1979;240:176-186
7
Post, J. 1983. Climatic change and subsistence crises. Journal of Interdisciplinary History. 14:153–160.
8
ILLINOISIOWA
MISSOURIINDIANA
Figure 2.Declines in US corn (maize) production. To generate an estimate of the probable change in crop
yield, computer simulations were run to obtain 300 different baseline crop yield levels using random selec-
tion of actual annual climate data over the past 30 years. The x axis shows the percent change in crop yield
from the estimated baseline; the y axis shows the number of simulations that yielded a change of that size.
[Figure 7 from Ozdogan et al. ]
6
Number of Simulation Runs
(300 in total)
Number of Simulation Runs
(300 in total)
Number of Simulation Runs
(300 in total)
Number of Simulation Runs
(300 in total)
MAIZE
MAIZE
MAIZE
MAIZE
6
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
Xia, Lili, and Alan Robock, 2012: Impacts of Nuclear Conflict in South Asia on Rice Production in Mainland China. In press at Climatic Change.
variation from year to year, and losses would be
most severe in year 5, averaging more than 20%
(Figure 3). For soybeans there would be a simi-
lar decline averaged over 10 years (Figure 4 on
pg 7). Here, too, the losses would be most
severe in year 5, again averaging more than
20%.
In a separate study, Xia and Robock
9
examined
the decline in Chinese middle season rice pro-
duction in response to this 5 Tg event. This study
used a different model, the Decision Support
System for Agrotechnology Transfer model 4.02
(DSSAT). It is a dynamic biophysical crop model
and simulates plant growth on a per hectare
basis, maintaining balances for water, carbon
and nitrogen. The required inputs include the
plant environment (weather and soil), cultivar
genotypes and agricultural management prac-
tices. The outputs from this model are potential
yields, which are usually higher than actual
yields. Perturbed climate data in 24 provinces in
China were generated using predictions of cli-
mate change from Robock et al. and observa-
tions in China from 198 weather stations from
1978 to 2008 (China Meteorological Data
Sharing Service System). The simulated change
in middle season rice yield in China was due to
the predicted decline in average monthly precipi-
tation, solar radiation and temperature.
9
UN PHOTO / MARTINE PERRET
Figure 3.Reduction of maize production over time, with whiskers showing one standard deviation for
each year after the nuclear war. The gray area shows ±1 standard deviation from the control runs, illus-
trating the effect of interannual weather variations. [Figure courtesy of M. Ozdogan.]
Years After Nuclear War
Relative Yield Change [%]
-
-
-
-
7
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
This study also did not consider the effect of UV
light increases or daily temperature extremes, or
the possible decline in available fertilizer, pesti-
cide and gasoline. Again, despite this conserva-
tive bias, the study showed a significant decline
in Chinese middle season rice production.
Averaged over 10 years, the decline would be
about 15% (Figure 5 on pg 8). During the first 4
years, rice production would decline by an aver-
age of 21%; over the next 6 years the decline
would average 10% (Figure 6 on pg 8).
The impact on rice production was found to vary
widely by province (Figure 7 on pg 9). In some
Figure 4.Declines in US soy production. The graphs were generated using the same methodology as in
Figure 2 on pg 5. [Figure 8 from Ozdogan et al. ]
6
areas in the South and East of China, production
would actually rise. For example, in Hainan rice
yield would increase by 5 to 15% per year. In
other areas to the North and West the decline
would be much more severe than the national
average. In Heilongjian province, home to 36 mil-
lion people, there would be a complete failure of
the rice crop in year 1 following the war. Rice pro-
duction would remain 60 to 70% below baseline
for most of the rest of the following decade (Figure
8 on pg 9).
ILLINOISIOWA
MISSOURIINDIANA
Number of Simulation Runs
(300 in total)
Number of Simulation Runs
(300 in total)
Number of Simulation Runs
(300 in total)
Number of Simulation Runs
(300 in total)
SOY
SOY
SOYSOY
8
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
Figure 6.Reduction of rice production with whiskers showing one standard deviation for each year after
the nuclear war. The gray area shows ±1 standard deviation from the control runs, illustrating the effect
of interannual weather variations. [Figure courtesy of L. Xia.]
Figure 5.Distribution of rice production change (%): The gray area shows ±1 standard deviation from the
control runs, illustrating the effect of interannual weather variations. [Figure 2(b) from Xia and Robock. ]
9
9
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
Figure 8.Reduction of rice yield over time in Heilongjiang Province, with whiskers showing one standard
deviation for each year after the nuclear war. [Figure courtesy of L. Xia.]
Figure 7.Map of rice yield reduction (%) for the first 4 years after regional nuclear conflict. Brown indi-
cates negative change, and green indicates positive change. White regions are provinces for which we
did not conduct model simulations. [Figure courtesy of L. Xia.]
10
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
he world is particularly vulnerable at this
time to a major decline in food production.
In March 2012, the UN Food and Agriculture
Organization estimated that grain stocks were
518 million metric tons, 22% of the annual con-
sumption of 2,319 million metric tons.
10
Expressed as days of consumption, this reserve
would last for 80 days. The US Department of
Agriculture estimates were somewhat lower at
467 million metric tons of grain stocks, a mere
19% of their estimated annual consumption, of
2,299 million metric tons.
11
Expressed as days
of consumption, this reserve would last for only
68 days.
Furthermore, the UN Food and Agriculture
Organization estimated in 2010 that there are
925 million people in the world who already suf-
fer from malnutrition.
12
Given this precarious situation, even small fur-
ther declines in food production could have major
consequences.
The large and protracted declines in agricultural
output predicted by Ozdogan and Xia are
unprecedented in modern times, and the full
extent of their impact on human nutrition are dif-
ficult to predict.
The impact on human
nutrition and health
T
Normally a decline in agricultural production
affects food consumption by raising the cost of
food; the decline in “accessible” food, the amount
of food that people can afford to buy, is much
greater than the decline in “available” food, the
actual agricultural output. The impact of rising
food prices is, of course, felt disproportionately
by people who are already malnourished precise-
ly because they cannot, at baseline prices, afford
to buy enough food.
A 2011 study by Webb et al
13
, drawing on the
data generated by Ozdogan, attempted to esti-
mate the effect that the shortfall in agricultural
output following a limited nuclear war would have
on the price of food, and therefore on its accessi-
bility. Using a global economy-wide model, the
Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), the study
examined the effects on food prices, and the
numbers of people who are malnourished. In
order to simulate the shock’s effect on cereal and
soybean prices, the study assumed that all crops
produced globally suffer yield declines to the
same extent that Ozdogan predicts for maize and
soybeans in the US corn belt.
The study found that the rise in food prices asso-
ciated with the average yearly decline in food
production would cause an additional 40 million
www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/csdb/en/
10
www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
11
ippnw.org/pdf/projected-impacts-webb.pdf
13
www.fao.org/publications/sofi/en/
12
UN PHOTO / STUART PRICE
11
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
people to become malnourished, and that the
largest annual decline in food production in year
5 would cause 67 million to enter the ranks of the
malnourished. The cumulative effect over 10
years would cause a total of 215 million people to
become malnourished.
The study concluded that a one year 20% decline
in crop yield would cause crop prices to rise
19.7%. But this rise would be very unevenly dis-
tributed across the globe. In East Asia the rise
would be 21.4% and in South Asia 31.6%. The
relationship between crop yield and food prices is
not linear: a further decline in yield would lead to a
much larger increase in prices. While the current
crop studies do not predict a decline of 40%,
should that occur, it would cause global crop
prices to rise an average of 98.7%. Again the
price rise would be very uneven. In South Asia as
a whole prices would rise 140.6%, and in India
159.6%.
It is hard to calculate with certainty the effect of
these price rises on caloric intake, but the study
argues that, “There is a broad consensus in the
literature that this parameter [the percentage
change in caloric intake given a one percent
increase in the price of food] is approximately -
0.5.” So a one year decline in crop yield of 20%
worldwide would lead to a a 19.7% rise in prices
and a 10% decline in caloric intake. The much
larger increases in food prices in some areas that
are predicted in the study would therefore be
expected to have a profound effect on the num-
ber of calories that people are able to consume.
A number of factors suggest that the accessible
food for those who are already malnourished
would decline even more dramatically than these
numbers suggest. The GTAP model looks only
at market behavior and assumes that markets
behave “normally.” In fact, experience suggests
that, in the aftermath of nuclear war, markets
would not behave normally. As the authors
explain, “Markets react...with commodity specu-
lation, hoarding (withholding of products from the
market), or by seeking to capture market share
through private non-open market deals (a loss of
transaction transparency), each of which con-
tributed to higher price volatility and market
uncertainty” in recent years. For example, in
March 2008, global wheat prices leaped 25% in
a single day; in the following month the price of
rice rose 50% in just two weeks.
14
These tran-
sient jumps in price were prompted by events far
less significant than a nuclear war.
At the time of the great Bengal famine of 1943,
Somalia Suffers from Worst
Drought in Century
A woman holding her malnour-
ished baby queues for food at the
Badbado camp for Internally
Displaced Persons. Famine has
been declared in two regions of
southern Somalia. In 2011, UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon
indicated that 3.7 million people
across the country—that’s nearly
half of the Somali population—
were in crisis and in urgent need
of assistance.
Webb, P. 2010. Medium to Long-Run Implications of High Food Prices for Global Nutrition. Journal of Nutrition. 140 (1): 140S-47S.
14
UN PHOTO / STUART PRICE
Brown, LR. Outgrowing the Earth. New York: WW Norton & Co. 2004.
16
Khrennikov, I. Medvedev orders review of Russian grain export ban at harvest end. 2010.
www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-04/medvedev-orders-review-of-russia-grain-export-ban-at-harvest-end.html
17
during which three million people died, food pro-
duction was only 5% less than it had been on
average over the preceding five years, and it was
actually 13% higher than it had been in 1941
when there was not a famine. But in 1943, after
the Japanese occupation of Burma, which had
historically exported grain to Bengal, the decline
in food production was coupled with panic hoard-
ing, and the price of rice increased nearly five
fold, making food unaffordable to large numbers
of people.
15
These two factors, hoarding and the
severe increase in rice prices, caused an effec-
tive inaccessibility of food far more severe than
the actual shortfall in production.
We would have to expect panic on a far greater
scale following a nuclear war, even if it were a
“limited” regional war, especially as it became
clear that there would be significant, sustained
agricultural shortfalls over an extended period.
It is probable that there would be hoarding on an
international scale as food exporting nations sus-
pended exports in order to assure adequate food
supplies for their own populations. In the last
decade there have been a number of examples
of nations banning grain exports. In September
2002, Canada, faced with a sharp decline in
wheat production because of drought conditions,
suspended wheat exports for a year. The next
year the European Union took similar action, as
did Russia. And in August 2004, Vietnam indicat-
ed it would not export rice until the following
spring.
16
India banned rice exports in November
2007 which, followed by export rice restrictions in
Vietnam, Egypt, and China in January 2008, con-
tributed to historic increases in world rice prices.
In 2010, Russia, responding to the severe
drought conditions that year, again suspended
grain exports.
17
In the event of a regional nuclear war, the grain
exporting states would be faced with major crop
losses and the prospect of bad harvests for the
next several years. It is probable that they would
take similar action, and refuse to export whatev-
er grain surplus they might have, retaining it
instead as a domestic reserve. It is also probable
that there would be widespread speculation on
agricultural markets.
Given these potential disturbances in normal
market conditions, it is possible that the increas-
es in food prices could be much larger than pre-
dicted by the Global Trade Analysis Project
(GTAP) model used in the Webb et al study.
Even if we do not take into account the way that
Sen, A. Poverty and famines. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 1981.
15
12
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
This child is just one of more than
150,000 displaced Afghans living
at Maslakh (internally displaced per-
sons) camp in mud huts and tents.
UN PHOTO / ESKINDER DEBEBE
13
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
Refugees from Libya queue for food
at the Tunisia Transit Camp.
rising food prices exacerbate the effects of a
fall in food production, the declines in available
food predicted by Ozdogan and Xia would be
devastating.
For the 925 million people who are currently mal-
nourished, the majority of their caloric intake is
derived from grain. For example, in Bangladesh
the figure is about 78%. We cannot know with
certainty that a 10-20% decline in grain produc-
tion would translate directly into a 10-20%
decline in grain consumption for all 925 million.
Some of the malnourished are subsistence farm-
ers who live in areas where grain production
might not decline. But we do know that the
chronically malnourished cannot survive a signif-
icant, sustained further decline in their caloric
intake. With a baseline consumption of 1,750
calories per day, even a 10% decline would lead
to an additional deficit of 175 calories per day.
While many of the malnourished might survive
the first year, it is realistic to fear that they would
not survive if these conditions persisted for a
decade.
Even if minimal, life-sustaining, levels of calories
could be provided for all of the malnourished, the
decline in quality of nutrition would cause signifi-
cant health effects. As Webb et al point out in
their study:
“As food prices rise people spend relatively
more on staples and less on ‘quality’ foods
(which tend to be micronutrient rich, including
meat, eggs, vegetables, etc.)...
“The specific impacts of reduced diet quality as
well as quantity include a rise in wasting among
children under 5, maternal undernutrition (low
body mass index) which can also cause irre-
versible damage to the fetus and a rise in rates
of low birth weights, and outbreaks of micronu-
trient deficiency diseases that may be killers in
their own right.
“Based on such experiences, one can assume
that any large food price increases attendant on
a nuclear shock would result in similar shifts in
household consumption globally (not only in
South Asia) away from nutrient-rich, higher cost
foods towards core staples (with a view to
buffering at least a minimum energy intake).
There are insufficient data to allow for the more
complex modeling required to estimate resulting
nutrition outcomes in terms of increased
micronutrient deficiencies, maternal nutritional
compromise or low birth weight. However, it is
clear that the human impacts would be huge—
with impaired growth and development of chil-
dren, increased morbidity (due to failing
immune functions caused by malnutrition), and
a rise in excess mortality.”
18
UN PHOTO / OCHA/ DAVID OHANA
Webb et al, op. cit. 2011. ippnw.org/pdf/projected-impacts-webb.pdf
18
major epidemics of infectious diseases. The pro-
longed cooling and resultant famine in 536-545
AD was accompanied by a major outbreak of
plague which developed over the next half centu-
ry into a global pandemic.
21
The famine of 1816
triggered an epidemic of typhus in Ireland that
spread to much of Europe
22
and the famine con-
ditions in India that year led to an outbreak of
cholera that has been implicated in the first glob-
al cholera pandemic.
23
The well studied Great
Bengal Famine of 1943 was associated with
major local epidemics of cholera, malaria, small-
pox, and dysentery.
24
Despite the advances in medical technology of
the last half century, a global famine on the scale
anticipated would provide the ideal breeding
ground for epidemics involving any or all of these
illnesses. In particular, the vast megacities of the
developing world, crowded, and often lacking
adequate sanitation in the best of times, would
almost certainly see major outbreaks of infec-
tious diseases; and illnesses, like plague, which
have not been prevalent in recent years might
again become major health threats.
Finally, we need to consider the immense poten-
tial for war and civil conflict that would be created
by famine on this scale. Within nations where
famine is widespread, there would almost cer-
tainly be food riots, and competition for limited
food resources might well exacerbate ethnic and
regional animosities. Among nations, armed con-
flict would be a very real possibility as states
dependent on imports attempted to maintain
access to food supplies.
It is impossible to estimate the additional global
death toll from disease and further warfare that
this “limited regional” nuclear war might cause,
but, given the worldwide scope of the climate
effects, the dead from these causes might well
number in the hundreds of millions.
14
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
Stommel, H, Stommel, E. op.cit.
23
Sen. op.cit.
24
The agricultural disruption caused by a limited
nuclear war would also pose a threat to the sev-
eral hundred million people who enjoy adequate
nutrition at this time, but who live in countries that
are dependent on food imports. The nations of
North Africa, home to more than 150 million peo-
ple, import more than 45% of their food.
19
Malaysia, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, as
well as a number of countries in the Middle East,
import 50% or more of their grain.
20
The antici-
pated suspension of exports from grain growing
countries might cause severe effects on nutrition
in all of these countries. The wealthier among
them might initially be able to obtain grain by bid-
ding up the price on international markets, but as
the extent and duration of the crop losses
became clear, exporting countries would proba-
bly tighten their bans on exports threatening the
food supplies of all these importing countries.
Combined with
the 925 million
people who are
currently malnour-
ished, the popula-
tions of these food
importing coun-
tries place the
number of people
potentially threat-
ened by famine at
well over one bil-
lion.
Two other issues
need to be consid-
ered as well.
First, there is a
very high likeli-
hood that famine
on this scale
would lead to
Keys, D. Catastrophe. London: Century. 1999.
21
www.ers.usda.gov/publications/gfa16/GFA16CountryTablesNAfrca.xls.
19
www.iucn.org/themes/wani/eatlas/html/gm19.html.
20
Stommel, H. Volcano weather: The story of 1816, the year without a winter. Newport, Rhode Island: Seven Seas Press. 1983.
22
A husband watches
over his severely mal-
nourished wife as she
lies in agony at a
camp for drought vic-
tims in Makalle, north-
ern Ethiopia.
UN PHOTO / JOHN ISAAC
15
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
According to the World Food Programme, the number of undernourished
people worldwide is just under 1 billion - equivalent to the population of
North America and Europe combined.
UN PHOTO / PETER MAGUBANE
The newly generated data on the decline in agricultural pro-
duction that would follow a limited, regional nuclear war in
South Asia support the concern that more than one billion
people would be in danger of starvation. Epidemic disease
and further conflict spawned by such a famine would put addi-
tional hundreds of millions at risk. These findings support the
following recommendations:
Conclusions and recommendations
There is an urgent need for further study to con-
firm the declines in corn and rice production pre-
dicted by Ozdogan and Xia, and to examine the
effect on other key crops, such as wheat, and in
other important food producing countries.
1)
2)
3)
There is a need to explore in more detail the sub-
sequent effects that these shortfalls would have
on human nutrition including both the extent of
the decline in caloric intake that would result from
these crop losses and the extent of micronutrient
deficiencies that would, in turn, result from this
decline in caloric intake.
The need for further study notwithstanding, the
preliminary data in these studies raises a giant
red flag about the threat to humanity posed by
the nuclear arms race in South Asia and by the
larger and more dangerous nuclear arsenals
possessed by the other nuclear weapons states.
There is an urgent need to reduce the reliance on
nuclear weapons by all nuclear weapons states,
and to move with all possible speed to the nego-
tiation of a nuclear weapons convention that will
ban these weapons completely.
16
NUCLEAR FAMINE: A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK
About the author
Ira Helfand, a physician from Northampton, Massachusetts, has
been writing and speaking about the medical consequences of
nuclear war on behalf of IPPNW and its US affiliate, Physicians
for Social Responsibility, since the 1980s. For the past five years,
he has been working with climate scientists Alan Robock, O. B.
Toon, and others to help document the health and environmental
disaster that would ensue from a range of possible nuclear wars.
Questions, and comments can be directed to:
irahelfand@gmail.com
Founded in 1961, Physicians for Social
Responsibility(PSR) is a non-profit organi-
zation that is the medical and public health
voice for policies to prevent nuclear war and
proliferation and to slow, stop and reverse
global warming and toxic degradation of the
environment.
1111 14th Street NW, Suite 700,
Washington, DC, 20005
Web: psr.org
International Physicians for the
Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) is a
federation of national medical organizations
in 63 countries, representing doctors, med-
ical students, other health workers, and con-
cerned citizens who share the common goal
of creating a more peaceful and secure world
freed from the threat of nuclear annihilation.
IPPNW received the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize.
66-70 Union Square, #204,
Somerville, MA 02143
Web: ippnw.org
